As difficult as it may be to believe, the NBA season does not always go as planned.

Some players and teams charge out of the gate, looking far more dangerous than anticipated. Others, for a number of reasons, fail to live up to expectations, whether high or more average.

But which are genuine surprises and disappointments? Which are anomalies caused by the small sample sizes inherent in the early part of the basketball season?

Appearing as a mid-November surprise is not always a sign of long-term success. It is also not a long-term criticism of the player or club to be labeled as a first-quarter disappointment. Context, as always, is critical, and it will be used freely throughout this exercise.

Brooklyn Nets’ Offensive Breakouts Surprising

The Brooklyn Nets have unable to turn their offensive surges into a winning record, owing largely to their inability to stop everything from nosebleeds to dangerous opposing scorers. However, they have had their fair share of scoring surges, as Cam Thomas and Lonnie Walker IV have bolstered an attack that was meant to be led by Mikal Bridges.

In 2022-23, Thomas had three straight 40-point games in early February, during an 11-game period in which he averaged 25.3 points. However, he swiftly returned to earth as his playing time reduced down the stretch before finishing the regular season with a 46-point performance in a blowout defeat to the Philadelphia 76ers.

Prior to suffering an ankle injury that would keep him out for a few weeks, Thomas was playing like it was February, despite not connecting on more than 32.1 percent of his threes. His ability to generate — and finish through — contact on the interior helped him record a remarkable 26.9 points per game.

Walker has succeeded in his job off the bench and has continued on the upward trend that began last season when he left the San Antonio Spurs for a one-year stint with the Los Angeles Lakers. His 16.8 points and 2.3 assists per game are likely unsustainable unless he begins to play more than 22.4 minutes per night, but he’s hit the proper shots in the right situations and has played mistake-free basketball within the flow of the offense.

Thomas and Walker might both regress, and their outstanding play hasn’t propelled Brooklyn into the class of Eastern Conference contenders. They do, however, raise the talent level on this roster as pleasant surprises who have the potential to be spectacular offensive producers for years to come.

Cavaliers without Donovan Mitchell are a disappointment

Remember when the Cleveland Cavaliers were ranked 14th in Bleacher Report’s power rankings at the start of the season? That was before they stumbled to a 4-5 record while being outscored by 2.2 points per game.

Donovan Mitchell has kept his half of the deal, averaging 29.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. However, the rest of the roster has been riddled with disappointments, ranging from Darius Garland struggling with turnovers (5.6 per game) and a vanishing three-point stroke (25.0 percent) to Evan Mobley failing to assert himself offensively to Jarrett Allen struggling to anchor the defense to…well, you get the picture.

Cleveland has, to be sure, shown flashes of life. Ohio natives thrive at transitioning and running regularly. They’re getting better as all of their pieces return to full health, and Mobley has already shown good chemistry with offseason acquisition Max Strus. Even though lots of open shots have clanged off the rim, they haven’t relied on repetitious pick-and-roll play to generate offense.

This is unlikely to last long, but the Cavs have definitely been a letdown in the early going. Falling from ninth and first in offensive and defensive rating to 22nd and 11th will do that, especially when an increasingly talented and diverse group was expected to build on the first-round loss to the New York Knicks.

Chet Holmgren Unicorns His Way Into ROY Contention

What is Chet Holmgren unable of doing on the basketball court?

Even if his gait appears a little odd at times, as if he’s stumbling into the proper plays, he always seems to make those perfect plays and has rarely looked like a rookie. Perhaps this is due to the fact that he redshirted the 2022-23 season due to an injury.

Through nine games for a tough Oklahoma City Thunder team, he has averaged 16.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steals, and 2.3 blocks while shooting 55.4 percent from the field, 50.0 percent on threes (3.3 attempts per game! ), and 87.9 percent from the line.

After taking the ball up the floor, Holmgren has run the show in the half-court set. His footwork makes me drool. He’s rotated well and used his length (7’1″ with a 7’6″ wingspan, which would be completely insane in a non-Victor Wembanyama world) to great benefit on defense. He’s filled gaps on both ends in ways that aren’t reflected in the box score.

Concerns about his 195-pound frame’s potential weakness should not go away anytime soon, but this guy can play in a manner that most 21-year-olds can’t in their first meaningful taste of NBA competition.

Lineups for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are a letdown

Remember when Damian Lillard was going to light up the league and run roughshod over the opposition alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and the rest of an uber-talented roster?

So far, that hasn’t happened.

Instead, the Bucks have crawled to a 5-4 record (although their Pythagorean victories, based on points scored and allowed, show they’ve overachieved while being outscored so far). Lillard has already missed two games due to a strained calf, and when he has played, he has battled to find his all-around shooting stroke. He hasn’t exactly looked at ease next to Antetokounmpo so far.

The two megastars have spent 148 minutes on the court together—far less than the total they’ll eventually post, which is a crucial caveat as they continue to feel each other out—and the results have been underwhelming. They have a distinctively negative net rating, scoring 103.6 points per 100 possessions and allowing 108.5.

In all likelihood, this will be remembered as a minor blip on the radar. However, disappointment has reigned supreme for those expecting the Lillard-led Bucks to storm out of the gate and emerge as an early-season juggernaut.

The Houston Rockets have taken off prematurely

Only the Washington Wizards (+50000), Charlotte Hornets (+50000), and Detroit Pistons (+50000) had greater odds to win the championship heading into the season than the Houston Rockets (+25000). However, while the first three bottom-feeders have gone 7-19, the Rockets, who feature an intriguing mix of high-upside kids and veterans supposed to serve as stabilizing forces, have gone 5-3.

Jalen Green leads the club in scoring, as expected, with an efficient 20.3 points per game. Aleperen engün has succeeded as a versatile impact player, averaging 19.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game while shooting 61.7 percent from the field. Dillon Brooks has contributed on both ends of the court. Jabari Smith Jr. is becoming more consistent with his shooting.

And all of this has occurred while Fred VanVleet has struggled to find his shooting, Amen Thompson has battled rookie nerves, and Tari Eason has appeared only twice since a breakout rookie season in 2022-23.

Houston is unlikely to remain a top-10 offensive and defensive unit, particularly given its sluggish play, while allowing head coach Ime Udoka to chase mismatches effectively, reduces the margin for error. However, the Rockets are definitely ahead of schedule and will not be an easy W on any team’s calendar—not now, and not in the future.